That is the stark warning from Alan Milburn's recent independent review of young people and work. 

Commissioned by the UK Government, the review highlights the growing number of young people who are Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) and the lasting impact this can have. It also examines the social and economic costs of not acting on this issue.

Understanding what is happening for the people behind the figures is important. They are not a single group. Some are looking for work or training, others are waiting to start a course or job.

A growing number of young people are neither learning nor looking for a job. Earlier this year, the Resolution Foundation reported that across the UK the majority of 18–24-year-olds who are NEET are economically inactive. This is a change from the 2010s when most were unemployed and looking for work. For many, their health, and particularly their mental health, is shaping their ability to participate: 28% are inactive due to sickness or disability, more than double the proportion in 2005.

The consequences can last far beyond youth. Research from University College London found that people who were NEET for a long time when young were around six times more likely to be out of work in midlife and three times more likely to report poor health than those who had never been NEET.

What does the picture look like in Wales?

In 2021, the Welsh Government set a national milestone that at least 90% of 16- to 24-year-olds will be in education, employment or training by 2050.

Provisional estimates show the figure was 86.3% for 2024, which is 4% higher than a decade ago. However, nearly 9% of young people were economically inactive. This was 70% of young people who are NEET compared to 56% in 2014.  

While Wales does not publish more detailed data on the reasons young people are NEET, evidence from England suggests they are more than twice as likely as their peers to experience mental health conditions.  

In a recent report, Public Health Wales estimated that around 135,000 children and young people in Wales had a diagnosable mental health condition in 2025. This includes one in four 17 to 24-year-olds. The report highlighted increases in emotional difficulties, self-harming behaviours, and eating disorders across all genders. While the COVID-19 pandemic made problems worse, the decline in adolescent mental health began before it and mirrors trends across many developed countries.

The report highlighted a growing gap between demand for support and the services available. It warned of the need to strengthen prevention, early intervention, and timely support for babies, children and young people. It also called for coordinated action across public services to respond to growing demand.

Taken together, these trends raise important questions for us in Wales. How is poor mental health affecting young people's ability to stay connected to education, employment and training? And is there an effective approach to provide the right support and prevent young people disengaging, or help them reconnect if they do?

What will Audit Wales do?

We have looked at issues relating to young people who are NEET before, including in wider work on  the well-being of young people in Wales in 2019.  In November, we will also be publishing our report looking at how well councils plan to meet the needs of children looked after, a group at significantly higher risk of becoming NEET.

We are now returning to the issue of NEETs. We want to understand more about the overall approach to supporting young people who are NEET or at risk of becoming NEET. We want to understand how much is being invested in that approach and how it is helping young people.