Regardless of funding, there are not quite enough pipeline schemes to meet the March 2026 target and some of these are considered risky.

Access to good quality, affordable housing is a cornerstone of health and well-being and a long-standing policy priority. The Welsh Government’s Programme for Government for 2021 to 2026 says that it will build 20,000 new low carbon social homes for rent. In practice, the Welsh Government has clarified that it counts some homes that are not new builds and that are not low carbon.

By the end of 2023-24, three years into the five-year programme, the Welsh Government estimates that it had secured fewer than half of the 20,000 social homes. It has sought to offset slow progress in building new homes with an increased focus on acquiring existing properties. Nonetheless, the 19,913 homes delivered or in the pipeline for delivery by March 2026 falls just short of the target. There is a high probability that some of the riskier schemes in the pipeline will not deliver in time or at all, regardless of funding.

Rising costs have meant that spend on affordable housing has been higher than initially expected. In 2021, the Welsh Government estimated it would spend around £1.6 billion on core capital schemes to deliver the target. Between 2021-22 and 2023-24 it had spent £1.1 billion on the core schemes, with a further £730 million notional budget for 2024-25 and 2025-26. We estimate that the Welsh Government could need as much as £580 million to £740 million extra capital on top of existing budget assumptions to get close to meeting the target by March 2026.

Without additional funding, we estimate that the Welsh Government and partners will deliver between 15,860 and 16,670 homes that count towards the 20,000 target by March 2026. There are options to make funding go further, including shifting the balance towards more acquisitions of existing homes, but these may not offer value for money over the longer-term.

There are positive aspects to the underpinning governance and management arrangements for delivering the social homes target. These include a collaborative approach and the core processes for managing grant funding. There are also areas for improvement around a more long-term approach to need, planning and funding, and doing more to ensure investment in affordable housing contributes to wider policy objectives. Our report makes recommendations on these and other matters.